The Power of Confidence
The Power of Confidence
Why people with Aura get ahead
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” ― Michelangelo
The Myth of Icarus, dating back to the 8th century BC, tells the story of Icarus ignoring his father, Daedalus’ warning and flying too close to the sun. Icarus fell out of the sky into the sea and drowned.
Of all the stories and myths from Ancient Greece, we still teach young children what happened to Icarus. Understandably, we want to minimize the number of people inadvertently plunging to their death but Icarus death serves as a warning.
Most takeaway from that story the dangers of hubris and overambition. It is better to remain humble and realistic, then to believe yourself to be powerful, even more than the gods (or the respective deity you find yourself believing in).
What if I told you that you missed a key message from that story?
Confidence is important if you wish to experience any success in life and this was known even by Daedalus. To this day we have a love hate relationship with confidence.
What does Icarus, Your Company’s CEO Napoleon, Tom Cruise, Kanye West and Joe Flacco teach us about confidence?
Today I will explain why most people missed the main point of Icarus and why you should not be afraid to be confident, even if it means flying too close to the sun.
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People like confident people
“If you are a fan of Kanye West, you’re a fan of yourself!” - Kanye West
What many people overlook is that Daedalus gave Icarus two warnings:
If he flew too low, his wings would get wet in the ocean
If he flew too high, the sun would melt the wax and the wings would disintegrate
While most focus on the risk of flying too close to the sun, there is not nearly discussion about the first warning, flying too low. Many cultures are skeptical when it comes to ambition or overconfidence. Tall Poppy Syndrome refers to when people of high status, success, or talent are resented, criticized, or cut down by society. Tall Poppy is associated with Australian and New Zealand culture but is also present in other countries where egalitarianism is emphasized. The phenomenon discourages people from excelling or standing out for fear of being targeted or ostracized.
Despite this resentment, the hypocrisy is that men and women are attracted to confident people. Confidence signals positive qualities that are not always immediately observable, such as competence or status. You can generally tell if somebody is confident just by the way they enter a room and carry themselves. Gen Z and Gen Alpha might refer to people like this as having “Aura”.
Not everyone will admit to being attracted by confident people, but everyone agrees that some people exude Aura; these people generally rise to the top. Amongst these people, you will find common traits. Many studies have found that tall people, especially men, are associated with being more competent, authoritative and confident. Although only about 15% of American men are over 6 feet tall, more than half of U.S. Presidents and Fortune 500 CEOs exceed that height. Unless you want to be a jockey, it’s normally better to be tall (sorry Short Kings).
(6 feet is ~183 Centimeters)
There is not much proof showing taller people are more competent than their shorter counter parts, the link between height and confidence seems to come from positive reinforcement. People often assume taller individuals are more competent, and as they are treated accordingly, these individuals begin to believe it, which boosts their confidence. Conversely, shorter people might feel self conscious about their height, reducing their confidence impacting the way people treat them.
Being short is not a curse unless you allow it to be. Some very successful, competent and confident people managed to do so, while barely waddling off the ground.
You Need (Some) Irrational Confidence To Be Great
Nobody would accuse Napoleon Bonaparte (5’6), Tom Cruise (5’7) or Kanye West (5’8) of lacking Aura. It’s easy to have confidence when you grow up in an environment preparing you to one day realize your birthright but none of these men were “Nepo babies”. They had to earn their status through hard work and talent. Yet this alone wouldn’t have been enough. They must have had a profound believe in themselves, to have reached the heights they did, especially so rapidly.
Napoleon's tactical genius earned him the rank of general in his mid-twenties, but without the confidence to lead the Siege of Toulon, he may have perished following the orders of a less skilled commander.
Tom Cruise, at just 18, moved to New York to pursue acting with little experience. Within three years, he starred in Risky Business, launching one of Hollywood’s most legendary careers.
Kanye West started as a successful music producer, but his true ambition was to become a rapper—a goal few in the industry believed he could achieve. His persistence paid off when The College Dropout (2004) became a critical and commercial success, establishing him as one of the greatest artists of his time.
These men highlight the positive attributes of irrational confidence.
Rational confidence is when you have evidence that you have the necessary competence to do something. People with irrational confidence, don’t need proof or evidence. Napoleon, Tom Cruise and Kanye didn’t have evidence they could lead a siege, play a leading man or release an award winning rap album.
The truth is, almost anyone who achieved greatness needed a degree of irrational confidence to even attempt it. If they had relied solely on evidence, they might never have reached legendary status at a young age. Being able to reach for things outside of your grasp, is what propels you forward, faster than everyone else. Napoleon could have patiently worked his way up the ranks, but he might have died in battle before rising to power. Perhaps, Tom Cruise should have taken on more small roles before becoming a leading man, but by then, he would have been too old for some of his iconic roles like Risky Business, Top Gun, and The Color of Money.
If you are willing to attempt something new beyond your current comfort zone, your confidence is irrational. If you achieve it, then your confidence wouldn’t have been irrational; it would be justified. Nobody exemplifies this better than Joe Flacco.
The Legend of Joe Flacco
If you don’t follow American football, the name Joe Flacco might not stand out to you, but his career illustrates the impact of confidence on success. Flacco was the quarterback (QB) for the Baltimore Ravens from 2008 to 2018. While the Ravens were perennial playoff contenders during his tenure, much of their success was attributed to coaching and defense rather than Flacco’s play.
In 2012, after another playoff exit, when asked by a reporter, Joe Flacco said he believed he was an elite QB; a statement that was widely ridiculed. By most measures, Flacco was average even his supporters struggled to justify placing him among the league’s top QBs. Despite the criticism, Flacco stood by his claim.
In the 2012 regular season, Flacco's performance was in line with his career averages: a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2:1 and a passer rating around 85—respectable but not elite. By most measures, he was was the 15th best QB in the league1. However, once the postseason began, Flacco delivered one of the best four-game stretches in NFL history. He led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory, defeating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady along the way, throwing 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions, and earning a 117 passer rating.
A year after being mocked for calling himself elite, Flacco was named Super Bowl MVP and signed the largest contract for a QB at the time. Although he never recaptured that level of play, for those four games, he truly was one of the best. This was only possible because he had that irrational confidence that made it possible2.
While Joe Flacco serves as a heartwarming example of how having a profound belief in yourself can propel you to heights otherwise unattainable, having a lot of confidence or a big ego, can also be damaging.
The Dangers of Hubris
“Pride always comes before a fall.” 16:18 KJV
We’ve established how confidence helps you get ahead and can propel you to greatness but if this was always how the story went, there would be nothing to humble those arrogant but unaccomplished people that seem to be everywhere (especially places where people with no careers but many Instagram followers like to hang out).
Irrational confidence is ONLY good if it makes you strive for better, otherwise you are just annoying, an underachiever or sabotaging yourself.
The point where irrational confidence becomes dangerous is:
When you alienate people by talking a big game without being able to back it up
When the cost of failure is more than your dignity
Confidence is like an ingredient in a recipe—the right amount can enhance your life, but too much can ruin it. The key is balancing confidence with competence. The more skilled you are, the more confidence you can display. It’s not arrogant to make claims about your abilities, so long as you can back it up. Scottie Scheffler can say he’s the best golfer in the world, without being called arrogant because he’s held the number one ranking for past 104 weeks. If your weekend golf buddy that struggles to break 90, says it, it’s not even arrogance—it’s delusion. If he goes around telling everybody that he’s the best, the moment people see him play, nobody will take him seriously.
The difference between Scottie and your friend, is that Scheffler has spent countless hours perfecting his game, which is why he’s reached the top ranking. His hours of practice make his confidence justified or rational. This is why truly competent individuals don’t need to talk a big game—their performance speaks for itself. Scottie has receipts— trophies (Drake voice). Magnus Carlsen has won enough championships he doesn’t need to tell people he’s better than them at chess. Just keep in mind before Scottie Scheffler and Magnus Carlsen became giants in their crafts, they were just young kids, with the audacity to believe they could be the best in the world.
Even if you are very accomplished overconfidence can still lead you to do things, you really should not. Kanye West is widely viewed as arrogant but many people forget that part of his rise came because out of the hubris from another, more established rapper. Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson wagered his entire career that his album Curtis would outsell Kanye’s Graduation, set to release at the same time. 50 Cent was at the top of the hip-hop game at that time and should have won easily. Kanye ended up outselling him by a wide margin and this match up helped Kanye achieve even more mainstream success while fundamentally changing hip-hop music. By most measures, 50 Cent should have won but his hubris made him take an unnecessary risk, which opened the door for a young but confident Kanye to snatch the hip-hop crown.
If you are participating in activities where more than your dignitary is at stake, overconfidence can be a massive disservice. Fighting, investing, gambling or free solo climbing are all activities where it’s better to err on the side of caution, instead of trying to bite off more than you can chew. The stakes of being wrong could mean your life of your livelihood. These are examples where starting small and working your weigh up is the preferable. Even if you think you are the best fighter at your gym, you probably shouldn’t challenge a UFC fighter when you see them in a bar. More than your pride can be damaged. In general because of Tall Poppy Syndrome, even if you have irrational confidence, it’s often better to keep it to yourself.
To avoid being disliked or ruining your life, please consult where you fall on Competence-Confidence Axis above, which will let you know how big a game you can talk and how much risk you can take without alienating people:
Confidence is important if you want to achieve great things in life but there is a point where if you can’t back up these claims, you risk losing status or cause serious damage to yourself. Be as confident as you like but avoid talking too a big of a game if you can’t reasonably back it up. When more than your pride is at stake, it’s better to work your way up, to avoid complete ruin. As much as people claim they don’t like irrationally confident people, these are the type of people who consistently get ahead. There’s a reason tall, charismatic people are occupying executive and presidential roles. If Napoleon, Cruise and West did what they were supposed to, it’s unlikely we would know who they are.
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There are 32 NFL teams, so that puts him at almost the midpoint of starting QBs.
Now 39, Joe Flacco continues to play in the NFL to this day. He continues to frustrate fan bases by occasionally exhibiting elite performances against their respective teams.
Interesting piece, Ben, a blend between pop culture and self-help. Thanks for sharing!
Love the last chart Ben!