Far reaching piece here with valid conclusions. Absent a breakthrough in AI (possible), population decline will bring nothing but trouble. Economies will stagnate and the “zero sum” mentality that breeds crime and corruption will return. Debt levels will grow as pension/healthcare systems no longer have enough income tax to support them. The only way out will be to raise taxes on the young, further depressing fertility, or inflating the debt away and imperiling savings.
At Risk & Progress, I have long held that we need to 1) Abolish the income tax and use LVT+VAT to fund social programs. Doing so would make them less dependent on new workers.
2) Consider a bigger and better child tax credit, of sorts (essay on this coming soon).
3) Reform immigration. My preference, however, would not be a points-based system. I prefer an age-based “entry fee.” Immigrants under 25 would be free, but the cost would rise thereafter. My logic is that young people cost less for the welfare system and have more taxpaying years ahead of them, while the inverse holds true for older immigrants.
Thanks so much for taking the time to read, repost and share your insightful comments.
I certainly would never argue against lower taxes but going forward, I doubt we will see any meaningful tax breaks or eliminations. Even with immigration taxes are going to go up and the government will be looking for every source they can. Immigration is the only hope that taxes don't become unmanageable.
I'm looking forward to checking out your essay on this; based on the rhetoric from Vance and Harris, I think this is definitely the approach the US is going to take.
The age based entry fee could also make sense. My thought was it's better to get more immigrants when they are still in primary and high school years to be able to learn the language, adapt to the culture etc. This is where a point system could reward families coming with many young children.
I am going to check out the discussion and maybe I'll take back some of my positions, thanks so much for sharing!
Far reaching piece here with valid conclusions. Absent a breakthrough in AI (possible), population decline will bring nothing but trouble. Economies will stagnate and the “zero sum” mentality that breeds crime and corruption will return. Debt levels will grow as pension/healthcare systems no longer have enough income tax to support them. The only way out will be to raise taxes on the young, further depressing fertility, or inflating the debt away and imperiling savings.
At Risk & Progress, I have long held that we need to 1) Abolish the income tax and use LVT+VAT to fund social programs. Doing so would make them less dependent on new workers.
2) Consider a bigger and better child tax credit, of sorts (essay on this coming soon).
3) Reform immigration. My preference, however, would not be a points-based system. I prefer an age-based “entry fee.” Immigrants under 25 would be free, but the cost would rise thereafter. My logic is that young people cost less for the welfare system and have more taxpaying years ahead of them, while the inverse holds true for older immigrants.
This way, there is no (negative) fiscal impact of immigration, but the economic impact (positive) is maintained. You may like the discussion here: https://www.lianeon.org/p/toward-an-optimal-immigration-system
Thanks so much for taking the time to read, repost and share your insightful comments.
I certainly would never argue against lower taxes but going forward, I doubt we will see any meaningful tax breaks or eliminations. Even with immigration taxes are going to go up and the government will be looking for every source they can. Immigration is the only hope that taxes don't become unmanageable.
I'm looking forward to checking out your essay on this; based on the rhetoric from Vance and Harris, I think this is definitely the approach the US is going to take.
The age based entry fee could also make sense. My thought was it's better to get more immigrants when they are still in primary and high school years to be able to learn the language, adapt to the culture etc. This is where a point system could reward families coming with many young children.
I am going to check out the discussion and maybe I'll take back some of my positions, thanks so much for sharing!