I think it’s a fair analysis, but my experience has been that mountains have gotten progressively more crowded, and since there’s no real way to increase the size of mountains or build new ones (all the worthwhile mountains are owned by the government and they’re not keen on letting some corporation ruin nature or whatever), they will keep increasing prices so long as the demand stays strong.
I think Vail isn’t so much in for a slow decline as it has become a mature company relatively quickly, due to there being not that large of a market. There aren’t many independent resorts left to buy up, most of their mountains (at least the important ones) have had their ski lifts all upgraded and facilities improved, and the resorts are still crowded. A good comparison might be with coke, (at least pre-2016 when I don’t know what happened).
It’ll be valued for its dividend yield rather than growth potential, which is currently more than 5% (I think it was undervalued yesterday. New GDP forecasts indicates that maybe a recession is coming, which means it’s maybe not a great time to buy). If they’re smart they won’t switch to “revenue growth at all costs” to try and figure out how they can cut costs to the minimum, but instead deliver a quality product, with decent dividend yields that grow consistently YoY.
You’re absolutely right. While the mountains are more crowded, it’s not leading to more revenue. It’s a bit like with MoviePass a few years ago.
The avid skiers are going way more, causing the overcrowding since they have the unlimited option. The higher prices are turning away the casuals, so fewer people will buy the unlimited passes.
Kind of like with gym memberships, Vail makes money by people who buy unlimited but don’t really use it.
They definitely aren’t in a high growth industry, the share price was probably part of the 2021 run up so now it’s all about operational efficiency.
I’m also an avid VT skier and I’m more hamstrung by conditions than cost. We used to get snow thanksgiving through march and now it’s seemingly condensed into Jan/Feb. I ski Pico mostly and happy that it’s independent along with Killington.
I know it sounds absolutely batshit crazy but to me the best on-mountain ski value is Aspen. There are 4 mountains of glorious skiing and terrain for everyone and since it becomes winter Miami now, very little actually ski. There is still groom tracks after 2pm. Once you get off the mountain, different story.
Need to check it out! Friends have told me for cost and crowd reasons they usually go elsewhere in Colorado though. Still need to go at least once to try it for myself
Private equity ruins everything
It all went sideways after they took down RJR Nabisco.
The classic: it’s so crowded, nobody goes there anymore.
Haha 100%?
I think it’s a fair analysis, but my experience has been that mountains have gotten progressively more crowded, and since there’s no real way to increase the size of mountains or build new ones (all the worthwhile mountains are owned by the government and they’re not keen on letting some corporation ruin nature or whatever), they will keep increasing prices so long as the demand stays strong.
I think Vail isn’t so much in for a slow decline as it has become a mature company relatively quickly, due to there being not that large of a market. There aren’t many independent resorts left to buy up, most of their mountains (at least the important ones) have had their ski lifts all upgraded and facilities improved, and the resorts are still crowded. A good comparison might be with coke, (at least pre-2016 when I don’t know what happened).
It’ll be valued for its dividend yield rather than growth potential, which is currently more than 5% (I think it was undervalued yesterday. New GDP forecasts indicates that maybe a recession is coming, which means it’s maybe not a great time to buy). If they’re smart they won’t switch to “revenue growth at all costs” to try and figure out how they can cut costs to the minimum, but instead deliver a quality product, with decent dividend yields that grow consistently YoY.
You’re absolutely right. While the mountains are more crowded, it’s not leading to more revenue. It’s a bit like with MoviePass a few years ago.
The avid skiers are going way more, causing the overcrowding since they have the unlimited option. The higher prices are turning away the casuals, so fewer people will buy the unlimited passes.
Kind of like with gym memberships, Vail makes money by people who buy unlimited but don’t really use it.
They definitely aren’t in a high growth industry, the share price was probably part of the 2021 run up so now it’s all about operational efficiency.
If skiing has to die so mountain biking can take its place, that’s something I (who has never skied but owns a downhill bike) have no problem with.
it’s okay soon enough private equity firms will find a way to monetize any small hill or elevated area to make money off mountain biking
I’m also an avid VT skier and I’m more hamstrung by conditions than cost. We used to get snow thanksgiving through march and now it’s seemingly condensed into Jan/Feb. I ski Pico mostly and happy that it’s independent along with Killington.
Pico is terrific, and affordable.
Pretty much the same for Quebec.
Easily lost 2 months from the ski season
I know it sounds absolutely batshit crazy but to me the best on-mountain ski value is Aspen. There are 4 mountains of glorious skiing and terrain for everyone and since it becomes winter Miami now, very little actually ski. There is still groom tracks after 2pm. Once you get off the mountain, different story.
Need to check it out! Friends have told me for cost and crowd reasons they usually go elsewhere in Colorado though. Still need to go at least once to try it for myself
Much better than Vail and steamboat in my opinion.
Yeah I’ve heard a lot of negative views on Vail in recent years